Detractors of president-elect Donald Trump protest against his policies in New York City on November 09, 2024. As the reality of a Trump triumph sets in, many, especially Africans, will question what a second Trump presidency would mean for the world Picture: Leonardo Munoz / AFP)
Dr. Wesley Seale
QUEUING for the till in Florida, some people from Pensacola were impressed with my checking out of the MAGA merchandise.
In this red (Republican) state, most people were definitely into the business of ‘Making America Great Again’ (MAGA). Finding the items hilarious though, one dared not show this amusement to the admirers.
The people of Florida must be proud of their win on Tuesday.
As the reality of a Trump triumph sets in, many, especially Africans, will question what a second Trump presidency would mean for the world.
Russia no longer has an adversary because Trump has historically been and continues to be close to Vladimir Putin. As a compromise, he will suggest Russia and Ukraine continue to occupy the territories they currently have under their control.
China will become the arch adversary replacing Russia with more trade wars.
The Palestinians are likely to lose control of Gaza and Trump tells Netanyahu to stop the war so that US and Israeli contractors can start rebuilding Gaza. Rebuilding the territory will inevitably mean building settlements for Israelis as they have done in the West Bank.
As Americans were beginning to cast their votes on Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pre-empting the outcome of the US presidential election, fired his defence minister, Yoav Gallant.
Gallant and Netanyahu have been at odds about the war in Gaza from its inception but even more so about what will happen in Gaza after the war. Gallant wanted a clear plan from his prime minister which excluded Israeli occupation of the territory.
Yet that – occupation of Gaza by Israel – is exactly in the Netanyahu/Trump plan.
In 2019, Trump’s administration declared that the US no longer considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal. In the same year, his administration recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. The Golan Heights belong to Syria.
Yet the pressure for an end to the war in Gaza is not only coming from within Israel but certainly from the rest of the region, led by Saudi Arabia, as well.
In the aftermath of the so-called Abraham Accords, of which Trump is the architect and which puts Israel on the road to the normalization of relations with most of its Arab neighbours led by the Saudis, the war in Gaza has been an embarrassment and an inconvenience for the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman (MbS).
Sources suggest that MbS gave a clear line to Arab Americans to vote for Trump but in return he wants the war in Gaza and Lebanon to end. The not-so-new president will have to deliver.
The focus will then turn to the containment of Iran and this will depend more on what MbS wants the US to do towards Iran than what Israel wants.
For Trump, Israel is irresponsible when it comes to Iran. Israel wants a war, but Trump does not. To reinforce the Abraham Accords, Trump is therefore more likely to seek MbS’ advice than that of Netanyahu.
MbS himself has been championing a normalization with Israel on the one hand but also with Iran on the other hand, in the entire Middle East region.
The Iranians are yet to retaliate on the Israeli attacks on Tehran in late October. With Trump in the White House and close to both MbS and Netanyahu, the Iranians would be wise to be more circumvent in their retaliation.
The reality now is that there are megalomaniacs in the White House and Beit Aghion, the official residence of the Israeli prime minister.
At a broader level, much attention has been placed on Project 2025.
While Trump has sought to distance himself from the document, several Republican and conservative authors have come together to articulate what action needs to happen when the Republicans reclaim the White House.
Now that they have, Project 2025 is almost likely to take effect.
In the chapter of the State Department, the foreign affairs section of the US government, academic and former director of policy planning in the State Department during the Trump administration, Kiron K. Skinner, identifies a few challenges and approaches that the new administration must adopt.
Firstly, Republicans seem to be pushing for more, what South Africans would know as, cadre deployment.
Skinner laments the fact that often Republican policy is not being implemented because state bureaucrats either do not want to implement it or obstruct it.
According to her, this is “one significant problem” that the new president must address.
She suggests “that large swaths of the State Department’s workforce are left-wing and predisposed to disagree with a conservative President’s policy agenda and vision.”
On countries highlighted earlier, she writes that the new administration must “respond vigorously to the Chinese threat” while on Iran she insists that “…a broader global interest in peace and stability for the Iranian people to have the democratic government they demand.” In other words, regime change.
Again, as with the previous Trump and Biden administrations, Africa remains low on the priority areas of Project 2025.
Skinner acknowledges that “as Africa’s strategic significance has grown, the US’s relative influence [here] has declined.”
Unlike the Biden administration which insisted that Russia must be resisted on the continent, Skinner and Trump’s administration will turn their focus to China and try to push back Chinese influence in Africa.
Fighting terrorism is also pointed out as a challenge in Africa.
However, the Republican-sponsored USA-South Africa Review Bill, which has bipartisan support, is most likely to proceed.
Not a fan of those who do not support US policy to the hilt, Trump is most likely to have a dim view of South Africa given our policy positions.
Like my checking out of the MAGA merchandise in Florida, so too the Trump administration will check out Africa.
They may find us amusing and even humorous, but the sad part is that they will almost pass us by. It is for Africans to focus on what they are in the shop for. Pay for our goods and determine our way.
* Dr. Wesley Seale has a PhD in international relations.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.
