NFP's Withdrawal Threat Casts Doubt on KZN Coalitions Stability

Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu

The decision by the ANC, DA, and the IFP to work together at the national government level following the 2024 general election paved the way for the IFP’s usurpation of power in KZN from the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).

IFP president Velenkosini Hlabisa confirmed in his media briefing that this decision had no bearing in KZN. However, in the same statement, Hlabisa stated that as the IFP, they had already proposed the name of Thamsanqa Ntuli to be the Premier candidate, a proposal both the ANC and the DA supported. When these parties convinced the NFP to join them, this shut the door for the MKP to use its majority to lead the province.

Eventually, the IFP’s 15 seats, the ANC’s 14 seats, the DA’s 11 seats, and the NFP’s one seat gave this collective 41 seats in the 80-member provincial legislature. Meanwhile, the MKP’s 37 seats and the EFF’s 2 seats saw these two parties only managing 39 seats.

But the usurpation of power from the MKP did not represent the will of the voters. Secondly, this coalition was built on a shaky foundation characterised by a trust deficit among coalition members. The fact that it has survived to this day is a miracle. This survival should be credited to an obsession with positions and the fear of what would happen at the national level if the coalition were to collapse.

The recent statement by the NFP that it is not happy with the KZN Premier Ntuli has triggered many questions. Substantiating his party’s statement, NFP leader Ivan Rowan Barnes argued that the NFP has lost confidence in Ntuli, while there has been an erosion of public trust in the provincial coalition government. Issues such as a lack of fiscal management and wasteful expenditure featured significantly in his criticism. 

Barnes continued to state that at both political and governance levels, there has been no meaningful review of meetings to assess the performance of those deployed by various political parties that form part of the provincial coalition government dubbed the Government of Provincial Unity (GPU). 

But what was glaring in the NFP’s statement was the view that since the MKP obtained the highest number of votes in KZN and thus had more seats than any other party, logic dictated that it (MKP) should lead the province.

While this statement is factually and logically correct, it raises a critical question. When the NFP decided to join the other three political parties, was it oblivious to this evident reality? If it knew this fact, why did it not work with the MKP and the EFF? In other words, is the NFP’s decision based on this fact or on the party’s disgruntlement about various issues that have nothing to do with doing justice to the MKP?

Whatever the answer to this question is, what is clear is that the KZN provincial government is in limbo. If the NFP supports the MKP and the EFF, this will see the KZN legislature facing a stalemate of 40 seats aside.

Should this happen, two things are possible. Firstly, it will be difficult to pass bills or conclude on pertinent matters. Secondly, the stalemate could be fertile ground for bribery, where each side would “persuade” or even buy someone from the other side to secure his or her vote. In a worst-case scenario, one Member could either abstain during voting or opt to be absent when voting is scheduled to happen.

Given these different scenarios, prospects for litigation are high. Secondly, stability in the provincial legislature is at risk because politicians may constantly change allegiances. They will do this without putting the interests or the needs of the people of KZN first, but for political expediency.

Recently, Inkosi Phathisizwe Chiliza, who leads the MKP in the KZN legislature, tabled a motion of no confidence against Premier Ntuli. Among other things, he highlighted very weak administrative control over departments and a lack of decisive leadership by the Premier.

Surely, Ntuli defended himself to the extent of referring to this motion as “craziness.” In his own analysis, the KZN government has done well in addressing corruption and crime. He also argued that his administration has attracted over $80 billion in investment into the province, with the prospect of moving this figure to over $90 billion during this year.

Without dismissing these facts or claims, what is clear is that the relationship between the ANC and the IFP amounts to ‘staged authenticity’. The ANC Youth League (ANCYL) is on record asking its mother body to pull out of this coalition, accusing the IFP of betrayal. As Ntuli asked them to “bring issues that require attention of the parties in the GPU” to the table, Mike Mabuyakhulu, who is ANC Provincial Coordinator, argued that the ANCYL should be listened to.   

The ANC provincial leadership is also not happy about how the party’s relations with its IFP counterparts have evolved. Among other things, there have been concerns raised about IFP leaders who are accused of making unilateral decisions without consulting other coalition partners. One of these leaders is COGTA MEC Rev. Thulasizwe Buthelezi, whom the ANC accuses of undermining other parties.

Another issue relates to how the IFP took over the control of the uMkhanyakude District Municipality in northern KZN. According to the IFP, the process was clean. However, the ANC holds a different view, arguing that the change did not embrace the spirit of political collegiality demonstrated in the KZN legislature and in the national government.

These political dynamics cast doubt about the sustainability of the current coalition government in KZN. If the fallout happens, what impact would that have on the national government? As the date of the 2026 LGE looms, parties will reposition themselves. 

In KZN, this process has already begun. The unfolding situation means that the future of the GPU is in jeopardy. Only astute leadership and political maturity can save the situation. As things stand, neither the IFP nor the MKP should rejoice.        

* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at Nelson Mandela University.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.