East Africa's Democratic Decline a Threat to Regional Stability

Kim Heller

Beneath the alluring fanfare of elections, Parliaments, and liberal Constitutions, democracy in East Africa is no shining star of people's power. The idea of governments for and by the people, which fanned the noble fight for a sovereign and decolonised Africa, has been vandalised.

Authoritarianism, lack of political accountability, and dramatic slides in media and civilian rights threaten the freedom, fortune, and fates of East Africans. The current pattern of political governance in East Africa is fashioned not on the best principles of liberatory and decolonisation politics but on the meaningless shift of power between political elites.

The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute's 2025 report forewarns that over 70% of East Africa's youth could be living under autocratic governments by 2030. Western metrics like V-Dem may not always capture local governance nuances, but what cannot be ignored is the extent to which repression has become the insignia of much of post-independent Africa.

Democratic decay is costly. World Bank statistics point to the fact that between 2020 and 2024, foreign direct investment in Uganda fell by 15% as a direct consequence of its oppressive state machinery, policies, and practices.

Further to this, the need for governments to redirect state resources towards stilling civil unrest weakens the public purse, resulting in public service and infrastructure deficits, and worsening poverty and inequality. This breeds dissatisfaction, displacement, and refugee flows, which place regional stability in peril.

As a direct result of Ethiopia's prolonged conflicts, more than one million refugees have sought refuge in Kenya and Sudan since 2020. This has placed undue strain on the economies of these two countries.

There are some real dangers ahead. The possibility of a difficult election in Kenya in 2027, an increasingly uneasy political mood in Tanzania, and conflict in Ethiopia's Amhara region could shatter the region's delicate accord. This will be eagerly watched by militia groups, who will be quick to pounce and exacerbate conflict and instability.

Tanzanian voters head to the polls this week. The spirit is one of trepidation rather than celebration. Opposition party rallies have been disrupted, and negative journalism curbed. When she took up the Presidency in 2021, Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first female Head of State in East Africa, inspired faith.

In the beginning, she released political prisoners and lifted media restrictions. This provided a welcome respite from the repressive administration of John Magufuli. Sadly, under her administration, over 500 opposition supporters have been detained, and media outlets have been suspended, allegedly for negative reporting. Opposition leader, Tundu Lissu, was quoted in The Citizen in September 2025 on the state of democracy in Tanzania. He said, "The space for dissent is shrinking daily."

Kenya is in a hazardous state of democratic drift. A wave of youth protests, fueled by the 2024 Finance Bill and unaffordably high, ever-rising living costs, saw the nation gripped in anger and anguish. The state's violent response to the protests, the death and abduction of activists, and the escalation of surveillance of citizens are all markers of democratic decline. The V-Dem Institute's latest categorisation for Kenya is as a 'grey-zone' democracy on the brink of autocracy.

In Uganda, democracy is nowhere in sight. In his 29-year Presidential reign, Yoweri Museveni has deteriorated from a respected liberation fighter to a militarised monarch, obsessed with personal patronage and power. He allowed political patronage to trump political accountability. Opposition politicians are routinely detained and tortured. Human Rights Watch (HRW) documented 74 cases in 2024 alone.

Hopes that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed would usher in an era of democracy in Ethiopia have wilted, as the war in Tigray, ethnic divisions, and political infighting have taken hold of the body politic. Mauritius and Seychelles are the only two East African countries that score relatively high on V-Dem's democracy index. This is due largely to stable state institutions and a low count of state repression.

The long legacy of economic dependency and colonial extraction makes it challenging to develop thriving democracies in Africa. Under the enormous strain of extractive economies and impossibly heavy debt burdens, social development is severely hampered, and this can easily trigger citizen outrage and protest.

The East African Community (EAC) and the African Union (AU) can no longer take refuge behind the principle of "non-interference." The principle of non-interference was intended to safeguard country sovereignty. It was never intended to provide shelter for state repression or allow democratic decay.

The restoration of the East African Court of Justice and its jurisdiction over electoral disputes and human rights violations is urgently required. When leaders abuse their country's constitution to extend their term of office, the EAC and AU need to denounce such actions as nothing short of constitutional coups unequivocally.

Those involved in these violations should be duly punished before this gambling of political power becomes the accepted order of the day. A clear message must resonate across the region - 'constitutional coups' are as unacceptable and undesirable as military coups. The role of these regional institutions in enforcing constitutional respect is crucial for the future of democracy in East Africa.

The next few years will be crucial for East Africa. If the current trajectory continues unchallenged, the risk of entrenching autocracy into the region's governance structure is high. However, there is also the potential for a different outcome. The youth of many African nations have shown remarkable resistance, determination, and resilience, refusing to be silenced. They could be the ones to save democracy in the region.

For the old, entrenched leadership that has perpetuated a cycle of dependence and dictatorship, they will not be remembered as the architects of a free African Continent, but as ruthless dictators of oppressive, merciless regimes.

* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.