Obsession with Factionalism Neutralising Ethical Leaders

Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu

The year 2027 will be a watershed moment for the ANC. It is during this year that the party will elect its new leadership. The ANC’s elective conference will find the party wounded and bleeding profusely. 

Since the 2019 general election, the ANC has been falling out of favour with the electorate. In 2019, for the first time, the ANC obtained less than 60% of the national vote, only managing 57.50%.

This continued in the 2021 Local Government Election (LGE), where the ANC’s popular vote was 45.59%. During the 2024 general election, the ANC performed dismally, only recording 40.18% of the national vote. These figures point to a party that is in constant decline.

But why is the ANC losing support? There are several plausible answers to this question. One of these answers is that more parties have been registered since the first democratic election in 1994, where only 19 political parties participated in the election that was held during that year.

The second plausible response would be that the ANC has seen many splinter organisations that left the party and assumed independent status. Apart from the PAC, which was formed in 1959, the parties that have pulled out of the ANC in post-apartheid South Africa include UDM, COPE, EFF, and the MKP. Logically, leaders of these splinter parties took ANC members with them.

While the explanations above cannot be summarily dismissed, they are only part of the problem. The main challenge facing the ANC is that it is bleeding from self-inflicted wounds. Even the splinter parties left the ANC due to the leadership of the party making reckless decisions on very pertinent issues.

In other words, had the ANC leadership taken rational decisions and shown astute leadership, the need for former ANC members to establish their own parties would not have arisen.

Linked to the above is the calibre of the current ANC leadership. Unlike the earlier leadership whose participation in the liberation struggle was premised on sacrifice, currently, political careerism is the dominant phenomenon attracting people into politics. As such, people join politics for self-aggrandizement, not as a sacrifice. 

While this goes beyond the ANC, the ANC is indeed accused number one in this regard since it has been the governing party from 1994 until the sixth administration, which ended in May 2024.

Another critical point is corruption. Many potential leaders have been implicated in wrongdoing on different platforms. The Zondo Commission and the ongoing Madlanga Commission have implicated several ANC leaders who are possible candidates for the 2027 elective conference. Should any of these leaders emerge victorious in 2027, what would that do to the political image of the party?

The recent decision by the SACP to contest the 2026 LGE independently raises questions about the future of the ANC and its leadership. For many years, the SACP has been working closely with the ANC. If the current stalemate continues until 2027 and beyond, one wonders how this will affect the future of the ANC in the 2029 general election and beyond.

The performance of the ANC in the 2026 LGE will be another factor in the party’s 2027 elective conference. The different roles that ANC leaders will play in the 2026 LGE will both directly and indirectly affect the leadership succession battle. Such an impact can either be positive or negative on those individual leaders.

Importantly, factionalism has destroyed the ANC. What role will factional politics dictate who emerges victorious in the 2027 ANC elective conference? Will the party produce a new leader based on merit, or will such a leader be produced by the dominant faction?

Should a factional leader emerge victorious, what impact will that have on the party? More importantly, how would such a development affect the ANC’s performance in the 2029 general election?

The DA’s perception of President Cyril Ramaphosa poses a succession challenge in the ANC. As it became clear that no party would obtain an outright majority in the 2024 general election, the DA did not mince its words that it would be happy to collaborate with the ANC. However, it made one condition clear that it would do so only if the ANC was led by Ramaphosa.

Given this context, and given the fact that Ramaphosa will not be contesting the presidency of the ANC in 2027, the question becomes: How will the ANC position itself after 2027? How will the DA relate to the new ANC leader? Importantly, how will the new leader relate to the DA?

Therefore, the stakes are high for the ANC’s 2027 elective conference. The party has its work cut out in trying to produce a leader who will unite the party and lead it to the 2029 general election. Such a leader should be able to relate with other political parties since the chance of a single political party meeting the fifty-plus-one threshold in the 2029 election is very slim.

These complex factors are a test for the ANC. Will it be truthful to itself and embark on the process of self-cleansing in time before the elective conference? If it is unable to do so, will the party be open to constructive criticism from its comrades, or will it continue to label them as being ‘anti-revolutionary’?

People outside of the ANC structures have been constantly providing advice to the party, only to be labelled as ‘enemies’ and people who hate both the current ANC president and the ANC as an organisation. Will the ANC change its approach and embrace such constructive criticism from outside the party? What role will political arrogance play in this regard? Will rationality find any space in the preparations?

In considering all these options, the time factor is of the essence. Given the myriad of challenges the ANC is wrestling with, there is a race against time. The 2026 LGE, 2027 elective conference, and the 2029 general election give the ANC little time to put its house in order.

* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at Nelson Mandela University.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.