TICAD 9: The Right Tonic for Africa as the Demise of AGOA Looms?

Kim Heller

The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) was held in Yokohama, Japan, on August 22, 2025. This Conference took place at a time of intense economic and security turmoil for Africa.

The punitive tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump have exacerbated the economic woes of Africa. U.S. tariffs, varying from ten percent to forty-one percent, have markedly decreased African exports to the United States.

The agricultural, automotive, and textile industries, which once profited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), are now distressed. Factories have closed, and job opportunities are scarcer. Poor economic growth, security concerns, and poor food security are commonplace in many African nations.

In some parts, China's infrastructural and developmental projects have brought benefits, but have also increased Africa's debt burden. It is a perfect time for Japan to bolster its presence and partnerships on the Continent.

At the Yokohama conference, Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, spoke enthusiastically of Africa's "dynamism and great potential". Ishiba spoke of a thirty-year partnership focused on economic, social development, and security projects, with reciprocal advantages for both countries.

By all accounts, it is a good partnership opportunity for both Japan and the African Continent.

The Yokohama Declaration and its key pledges are built on three pillars: economic growth, social development, and peace and security. The strong orientation on bolstering the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), upgrading regional trade corridors, and developing mineral processing and value chains promises a significant boost to Africa's economic landscape.

The pledge to train 300,000 people in Artificial Intelligence (AI), grant scholarships, and introduce climate-smart mechanisms into the agriculture sector underlines the commitment to social development. The declaration's support for Africa's call for greater representation on the UN Security Council and its promise of funds for peacekeeping and post-conflict reconstruction underscore the importance of peace and security in Africa's development.

A flagship project involves an investment in the Nacala Corridor, which links Zambia's copper belt to the port of Nacala in Mozambique. An optimisation of this corridor would increase Africa's trade capacity. The proposed "Indian Ocean Africa Economic Zone", which links Japanese companies in India and the Middle East to African markets, could boost regional integration for the good of all parties. Prime Minister Ishiba announced $5.5 billion in loans as a means of debt relief and sustainable development.

This will be coordinated with the African Development Bank. The loans would be at a better rate than those being offered by China. Clearly, this is an effort by Japan to counter China's influence on the Continent.

Nonetheless, it is encouraging because it signals a longer-term investment strategy geared towards tangibility and sustainability rather than being driven by short-term offerings. It all seems too good to be true. A measure of scepticism is necessary given the avalanche of fallen promises made at such conferences.

Beneath the enthusiasm is the lingering question of whether Japan is reaching out to Africa to lock in an authentic and mutually beneficial partnership or if they are using this as a show-and-tell in its competition with China.

In 2024, China's trade with Africa was just short of $300 billion, far outperforming Japan's $25 billion. China has heightened its investment in Africa, particularly through its financing of ports, roads, and energy infrastructure. The cost, however, is higher debt levels for Africa. Japan is speaking the lingo of mutual and sustainable development.

The pledge to assist Africa in processing its minerals is a positive step, especially in view of the history of exploitation and extraction that has plagued the Continent and kept it poor. Japan's approach is hardly charitable. It is strategic given that Africa’s minerals are key to Japan's energy development needs. Africa is vulnerable.

Poor economic development, punitive tariffs, dangerously high debt, and ever-threatening climate challenges make it an easy target for ruthless investors. Nonetheless, TICAD 9 could be the start of a very positive new relationship.

The proposed programmes meet material needs and aspirations, and this is a solid starting point. In the worst case, the partnership with Japan will offer a short-term safeguard from the shock of tariffs. In the best case, it will provide essential trade and infrastructure rejuvenation.

Japan must deliver on its promises. TICAD 8, which was held in 2022, committed $30 billion in investment, but only a portion of this commitment was delivered. The investment fell well short of the promised $30 billion.Despite its current economic and security fragility, Africa should negotiate with international partners with confidence.

The Continent's unique selling proposition is that it has thirty per cent of global mineral reserves and seventy per cent of cobalt. TICAD 9 will be a critical test for the Continent.

If the Continent can ensure that sustainability and sovereignty are at the heart of such partnerships, it will begin to derive more substantial long-term and lasting benefits. There are many positives in the partnership with Japan. The project to process minerals locally is a significant move away from the wholesale extraction and exporting of raw materials.

Technology transfer and local skills development are meaningful in the immediate and longer term. Highly functional industrial corridors will sustainably benefit African producers. TICAD could well be a significant turning point.

It is by no means the total solution, but a new beginning for Africa as it begins to seal deals that benefit it in the long term and amplify its might as a valuable trade partner. For now, the prognosis is cautiously optimistic.

TICAD 9 is the right tonic for Africa at this point. It provides an attractive prospect in rocky times. It will help shield Africa as it ventures through the aftershock of high U.S. tariffs and help the Continent to reduce its dependencies on the U.S. and China.

For Japan, the partnership is important for its global standing as a powerhouse and for the ready access to mineral resources that such a partnership provides. It is a win-win.

* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.