Mbeki, Ramaphosa spat a distraction from SA's political, economic crises

Zamikhaya Maseti

TODAY the University of South Africa will host the National Convention as part of the long-awaited National Dialogue process.

Three days. One defining moment. Yet the event, meant to unify, has been shadowed by controversy and infighting, splashed across headlines and broadcast into every home. As the noise rose, a Xhosa phrase echoed in my mind, “Waqhawuk’ ujingi abantwana bedlala”, the swing snapping mid-flight, the laughter of children collapsing into gasps as fragile ropes gave way.

We dare not permit the swing of this moment to shatter. That was the instinctive exclamation in my Sunday reverie. We dare not allow this great occasion to slip through the fissures of mismanagement or the cracks of mistrust.

Over the past five weeks, I have written that the National Dialogue is the conversation we did not know we needed until former President Thabo Mvuyelwa Mbeki made it plain that we must engage in such a reckoning, a dialogue to arrest the disintegration of a South African society whose socio-economic fabric teeters on the brink of disarray. The current state of affairs bears the unmistakable signs of an unravelling.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, recognising the urgency of this intervention, has placed the full weight of his office behind the Dialogue, setting the process in motion. Yet, the so-called standoff between the two statesmen, a narrative energetically manufactured and diligently perpetuated by elements of the Fourth Estate, has sought to recast what appears to be a bureaucratic disagreement over logistical arrangements into a supposed political rupture between them. 

The reality, I would argue, is more prosaic; neither leader is enmeshed in operational minutiae, their engagement is at the level of principle and strategic oversight, with briefings, not venue bookings, commanding their attention.

That, however, is peripheral to the central concern. When the delegates assemble tomorrow, they must, with intellectual courage and patriotic candour, turn their minds to the acute crisis gripping the South African economy. To evade this task is to indulge in the luxury of distraction while the swing itself is splitting under our collective weight.

As a nation-state, we now find ourselves grappling with the devastating consequences of President Donald Trump’s 30 per cent reciprocal tariffs, an economic assault whose reverberations will not be confined to the abstract realm of trade statistics. The shock will travel swiftly down the economic value chain, from our factories, manufacturing plants, and agro-industrial complexes, through the distribution networks, and into the very households of workers and entrepreneurs alike.

It will be felt in the tightening grip of pending layoffs, in the silent closure of once thriving shop floors, and in the contraction of disposable income that sustains local economies. The pavements and street corners of our towns will soon teem with competing jobseekers, each the human face of a macroeconomic crisis.

On Tuesday, the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) from Stats SA shows that South Africa’s unemployment rate has increased again, jumping to 33.2% in Q2. This, alongside a depressed Consumer Price Index, a dual indicator of both the erosion of purchasing power and the contraction of demand. 

These are not mere technical adjustments in an economic model; they are the early warning flares of a society inching closer to what Moeletsi Mbeki, in his prescient political economy writings over a decade ago, termed South Africa’s Tunisia Moment, the combustible intersection of economic stagnation, political disenchantment, and mass youth unemployment.

The task before the delegates, therefore, is nothing less than to chart a credible and urgent course towards new frontiers of economic growth. This requires the forging of innovative policy instruments, strategic sectoral interventions, and bold market realignments capable of repelling, and indeed reversing, the corrosive impact of Trump’s protectionist shock.

One such frontier is agriculture, the enduring sunrise sector of our economy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when global supply chains collapsed and predictions of famine loomed, it was agriculture that carried the nation’s food security.

This resilience must be expanded and democratised. The National Dialogue must instruct the Minister of Land Reform, His Excellency Mr Mzwanele Nyhontso, and the Minister of Agriculture, His Excellency Mr John Steenhuisen, to accelerate land access for those ready to work it and to resolve tenure insecurity with urgency.

The Minister of Agriculture must oversee the entire agricultural value chain, from production to markets, ensuring that land reform beneficiaries and rural communities are central to the food economy. We must also address the ageing profile of commercial farmers by channelling youth into agriculture, equipping them with skills, capital, and technology. 

The Land Bank must be repurposed to serve emerging farmers, the Development Bank of Southern Africa must finance agricultural infrastructure, and the Industrial Development Corporation must foster new agro-industries. All Development Finance Institutions and State-Owned Enterprises must unite in a coordinated counter-offensive against the corrosive effects of Trump’s tariffs.

A second frontier is renewable energy and green industrialisation. South Africa cannot remain tethered to a carbon-heavy energy system that is both environmentally unsustainable and geopolitically exposed. We must transition to renewable energy, large-scale solar and wind, decentralised microgrids, not only to meet climate obligations but to spark industrial diversification and job creation. Local manufacturing of renewable energy components, from solar panels to battery systems, can anchor new industries and position South Africa as a leader in the continental green economy.

A third frontier is the digital economy and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Global economic power is shifting through advances in artificial intelligence, blockchain, robotics, and advanced manufacturing. South Africa must invest in digital infrastructure, broadband access, and coding education while linking universities, research hubs, and industry in a national innovation network. The goal is to move from commodity dependence to high-value, technology-driven production, ensuring that digital transformation expands opportunity rather than deepens inequality.

By the time the National Convention concludes on Sunday, every sector must emerge with clear, actionable mandates ready for implementation before the year ends. The delegates at the must, over this weekend, converse and dialogue about those serious socio-economic issues that will take our country out of the morass and bring back hope to all of us. We dare not allow aqhawuke ujing'abantwana bedlala. Ngeke sivume.

* Zamikhaya Maseti is a Political Economy Analyst.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.