The results of recent by-elections should not be ignored. Any party which does that would be digging its own political grave, says the writer.
Image: Itumeleng English / Independent Newspapers
Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu
KZN has always been an important province to different political parties. In 1994, both the ANC and the IFP were determined to clinch KZN, but the IFP emerged victorious.
Years later, the ANC joined hands with the IFP to co-govern the province. Subsequently, the ANC won the province. While licking its wounds, the IFP did not give up hope that it would one day reclaim KZN from the ANC.
Not to be left out in this scramble for KZN, the DA opted to work with the IFP to neutralise the ANC. Their plan seemed to be on course until two developments happened.
The first one was the passing away of Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, who had been the face of the IFP since its formation in 1975. Even after Velenkosini Hlabisa was elected as the new leader, he remained in Buthelezi’s shadow, as evidenced in the positioning of his face on the party’s campaign T-shirts. With Buthelezi gone, there was uncertainty about the future of the IFP.
The second setback was the emergence of uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) led by former President Jacob Zuma. The new MKP scuttled the IFP’s plan to reclaim the province. Not even the DA's support could assist it in this regard. The IFP’s hope of benefitting from the ANC’s decline and self-inflicted wounds were dashed by Zuma’s MKP.
But neither the DA nor the IFP would give up without a fight. They invested their time and resources to ensure that they contain the new MKP. As the date of the 2024 general election came closer, it became clear that the MKP was going to be a force to be reckoned with.
In preparation for the 2024 general election, various political parties descended on KZN to try their luck by either increasing their support base or by totally winning the premiership of the province. This appetite for KZN became evident when political parties like the ANC, EFF, and the IFP converged at Moses Mabhida Stadium to launch their election manifestos. Other parties also dispatched their leaders to KZN to woo voters.
The ANC had more reasons to frequent KZN and to deploy its senior leaders to talk to the voters. Firstly, KZN had always remained the biggest province for the ANC, with eThekwini being the party’s biggest region nationally. Secondly, it was the second biggest province in terms of population after Gauteng. Thirdly, it was the second largest GDP contributor after Gauteng. Fourthly and most importantly, the province was Zuma’s home province, which meant that the ANC was on the verge of losing support to MKP.
When the results of the 2024 general election were announced on 2 June 2024, the ANC was by far the greatest loser in KZN. It only obtained 16.99% of the votes or 14 seats in the 80-seat provincial legislature. The IFP managed to get 18.07% or 15 seats. Meanwhile, the new MKP obtained 45.35% or 37 seats.
The unprecedented and unexplained technical glitch which happened during the counting of votes raised questions about the authenticity of the results. The MKP and 25 other political parties cried foul suspecting that they had been robbed of some votes. Looking at the political mood during the campaigns, the excitement on voting day, and how the MKP had been progressing before the technical glitch, these parties suspected that the system’s failure may have been deliberately orchestrated. Anyway, all of that is history now.
As the 2026 LGE approached, the excitement has been revived. The parties that were beaten by the MKP are planning to regain their lost ground. Meanwhile, the MKP is determined to prove that the success recorded in 2024 was not a flash in the pan.
The results of recent by-elections should not be ignored. Any party which does that would be digging its own political grave. The MKP has shocked both the ANC and the IFP in many by-elections. Its victories include Ward 11 in Mzumbe, Ward 28 in Kwa-Dukuza, and Ward 18 in Mandeni. The MKP recently added the DA to its list of victims when it won ward 110 in uMhlanga in eThekwini.
A few questions arise. Has the ANC learnt from its 2024 mistakes, which saw it being humbled at the polls? For example, has it addressed internal squabbles caused by factional politics? Has it honestly spoken to its membership and supporters to present a diagnosis of its problems and proposed solutions? Has it explained the party’s decision to reconfigure the provincial leadership by announcing the Provincial Task Team (PTT)? Importantly, is the ANC focused on the upcoming LGE or are its eyes fixated on the 2027 party elective conference? If these and other questions remain unanswered, things do not augur well for the party as it prepares for the 2026 LGE.
On its part, the IFP must ask itself critical questions. For example, has it found a way to peel away from Buthelezi’s shadow? Has the party identified and addressed internal differences where these exist? Has the IFP assessed the impact of its decision to work with the DA in KZN and to join the ANC-led coalition at the national level? Did it evaluate its decision to collude with the ANC, DA and NFP to usurp power from the MKP? If so, did it explain to its membership and supporters why the voice of the people of KZN was silenced? Lastly, is the party focused more on leadership debates than the LGE?
The MKP must also ask itself critical questions. Has it used its opposition status to prepare for leadership? Has it rooted out infiltrators? Has it capacitated its leadership? Have its members learnt to avoid provocation by its opponents?
Undoubtedly, KZN will be the battleground in the 2026 LGE. Competitors must show political maturity.
* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at Nelson Mandela University.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.