Detractors of president-elect Donald Trump protest against his policies in New York City on November 09, 2024. As Trump prepares to enter the White House for a second term, US allies in Europe contemplate a conflict without US support, says the writer. Picture: Leonardo Munoz / AFP)

WESLEY SEALE

ON Sunday, Russians observed the 171st anniversary of the victory at the Battle of Sinop.

Sinop, a seaport on the northern coast of present-day Türkiye, was in 1853 part of the Ottoman Empire.

Imperial Russia launched an offensive and decisively defeated the Ottoman navy stationed at Sinop.

The battle formed part of the early stages of the Crimean War; a war that was fought between the Russian Empire and an ambiguous alliance between the Ottoman Empire, France, the United Kingdom and Sardinia-Piedmont, a region of modern-day Italy.

Yet the Crimean War was about, what we call in international relations, the balance of power.

Established in the Concert of Europe, European countries, such as France and the UK, found it necessary to use the Ottoman Empire as a buffer and a bulwark against Russian expansion into the continent and hence no one country had to have hegemony over Europe.

Today it is not the Ottoman Empire that is used by European countries as a frontier against Russia but Ukraine.

Ironically, the United States, though officially neutral as they are today with the conflict in Ukraine, was biased towards the Russians during the Crimean War, not the Europeans.

Writing in The American Historical Review in 1926, the American historian and specialist on Russia, Frank A. Golder, suggested that the US-Russian relationship at the time of the Crimean War was a classic case of ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’.

The US and Russia had a common enemy: the United Kingdom.

Yet even more so and which still stands today, especially with a new Trump presidency, is that both the US and Russia acted firmly based on raison d’état: national interest.

This relationship between the US and Russia was so convincing that Thomas Seymour, then US minister or ambassador to Russia, was to advise the then US Secretary of State, William Marcy, that “Russia is not the barbarous nation which her late adversaries have represented her to be.”

Ironically, it is probably the newly elected Republican president, Donald Trump, who will have a more affable approach to Russia than the Democrat currently in the White House.

Both Seymour and Marcy were Democrats.

Trump no doubt will try and take US-Russian relations back to the way they were under his presidency more than four years ago and during the time of the Crimean War.

If there is anything that Trump and Russian president, Vladimir Putin, have in common then it is to make their respective countries great again.

Today, Russia also marks the 23rd anniversary of the establishment of the Russian nationalist and ruling party, United Russia.

In Ukraine, they are marking the 33rd anniversary of the referendum which decided the Ukrainian exit out of the Soviet Union.

Yet today also sees the end days of the conflict in Ukraine.

As Trump prepares to enter the White House for a second term, US allies in Europe contemplate a conflict without US support.

His predecessor and current lame-duck president, Joe Biden, has upped the ante in the conflict by authorizing the use of US-produced Army Tactical Missile Systems inside of Russia as well as providing the Ukrainians with anti-personnel land mines.

According to reports, this authorization was in response to the Russian deployment of 50,000 troops to Kursk, the advancement of Russian troops in Ukraine and the involvement of Korean troops on the side of Russia.

At the same time, British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has authorized the use of British-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory.

The Labour leader stated that the UK’s support for Ukraine was “proportionate” and lawful.

But in a statement, former Labour leader and now an independent member of parliament after he was expelled from the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, said that “the Prime Minister [Keir Starmer] should make a statement to [the UK] Parliament immediately, to confirm whether UK missiles have been fired into Russia…He must tell the British public if this means we [the British people] are now at war with a nuclear power…and why this action was taken without any approval from Parliament.”

Corbyn also insisted on de-escalation and peace.

We would do well to recall a former Labour prime minister, Tony Blair, who, like Starmer today, blindly supported the US administration at the time of invading Iraq.

Meanwhile, Michael Waltz, tipped to be Trump’s national security advisor, has indicated that Trump is “incredibly concerned” with the actions taken by outgoing President Biden and the subsequent escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

Therefore, while there will be a definite change in the US approach to the Ukrainian conflict there is almost likely to be a similar approach in Europe.

The German government has collapsed while the French administration is feeble.

These European powerhouses have served as leaders in ensuring a balance of power in Eurasia and keeping Russia in check. Germany is the number two country, after the US, in providing support to Ukraine.

In an April edition, this column suggested that nothing since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 has divided the international community as much as the conflict in Ukraine.

Interestingly, as we approach the beginning of the end of that conflict and watch the shift in the balance of power in Europe and the globe, there are similarities not only in this conflict with the Crimean War but, as pointed out by a Labour leader as prime minister in the UK, with the war in Iraq as well.

The US and the UK left Iraq in devastation.

They are about to leave Ukraine in the same devastation as well because of their supply of more arms.

As Africans on the ground, we continue to suffer the effects of the war between the elephants: the US, Europe and Russia.

We can only hope that the conflict will end soon so that prices of essential commodities, which spiked at the outbreak of conflict, can stabilize.

Rest assured, we will all then share in the victory and not just the Russians.

* Dr. Wesley Seale has a PhD in international relations.

** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.

#us-elections

Trump's Bullying, Threats ‘A Desperate Attempt to Intimidate’ Global South Nations

Shift in US, European balance of power raises hope for peace

Trump’s victory no cause to celebrate for Africa’s growth and development

‘No fundamental shift expected in Washington’s approach to Africa’