DA, Helen Zille Banking on Protest Vote in Joburg's Mayoral Race

Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu

On September 20, 2025, the DA officially nominated Helen Zille to be its mayoral candidate in Johannesburg in the upcoming 2026 Local Government Election (LGE). This announcement finally confirmed speculations that had already started making the rounds about Zille’s candidacy.

Like any political party, the DA has the right to decide who to deploy as a mayoral candidate. It has become fashionable for some political parties to nominate someone who does not reside in an area for the mayoral position. Some people (especially party members) applaud this practice for preferring talent and skill instead of one’s residency. Others, however, cry foul and question this decision, which undermines local talent. This is an ongoing debate.

But what does Zille’s nomination mean for the ANC? This question is more important than its counterpart, which is, ‘What does Zille’s nomination mean for the DA?’ The reason is that the ANC stands to be the biggest loser through this nomination. There are various reasons for that.

Firstly, currently, the people of Johannesburg are facing many challenges under the leadership of the ANC. Among other concerns is the water crisis, collapsing infrastructure due to years of neglect, dilapidated buildings, and roads that are littered with potholes. 

Residents have been complaining about the scarcity of water in Johannesburg, which is South Africa’s economic hub. 

Moreover, claims of incorrect electricity bills have become a common occurrence, with some residents said to be owing the municipality over R500 000 per person. As water tankers struggle to service communities, people’s anger has reached crisis proportions.

The current mayor, Dada Morero, has made promises to fix the water problem but has failed to deliver. Meanwhile, residents have been venting their anger on him, accusing him of dishonesty by making empty promises. Following Morero’s appearance before the Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation on September 19, 2025, chaired by Leon Basson, parliament gave him 14 days to fix the water crisis.

Secondly, ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa played into the hands of the DA when he recklessly used the Auditor-General’s (AG’s) report to tell close to 5000 ANC councillors who converged at FNB Stadium that good-performing municipalities are those that are led by the DA, not the ANC.

Ramaphosa, ANC Youth League, and Fikile Mbalula subsequently made frantic attempts to rationalise this statement, arguing that it was misconstrued. However, this was too little too late. Both Zille and DA leader John Steenhuisen cited Ramaphosa, arguing that he confirmed what they (DA) have been saying all along, that the DA governs better than the ANC.

Thirdly, the DA is aware that the ANC is currently vulnerable. In the 2021 LGE, the ANC obtained 45.59% of the popular vote nationally. In Gauteng, it obtained 36,06%. Currently, the ANC leads the province by 34% followed by the DA, which has 26% while ActionSA has 16%. The DA believes that the issues listed above make the gap between 36 and 26 easy to close and even surpass the ANC.

Fourthly, while other political parties are planning for the upcoming LGE, the ANC is already thinking about its elective conferences scheduled for 2027. This, in the eyes of the DA, leaves the ANC weakened.

Fifthly, with the high youth unemployment rate across the country and in Gauteng, the DA plans to draw youth support and promises them jobs. Whether this promise will be fulfilled or not is immaterial. The ANC suffers from ‘sins of incumbency.’

In a nutshell, the DA’s strategy of deploying Zille in Johannesburg is informed by the assumed ANC’s weakness and the various challenges currently ravaging Johannesburg. It hopes that the people of Johannesburg will vote for the DA out of protest. Importantly, it hopes that they will vote for Zille given her leadership experience. She was the DA leader from 2007 until 2015. She also served as Western Cape Premier for two terms.

But experience alone is not enough. While it is true that Zille has vast leadership experience, Morero too is not a novice politician. Moreover, if the problem is the ageing infrastructure, Zille might not be able to fix Johannesburg's challenges quickly, as some people think.

The metro’s infrastructure backlog is estimated to be around R200 billion. Meanwhile, the budget is about R86 billion.

So, at face value, the DA and Zille are at an advantageous position compared to the ANC and Morero. But while it is plausible that the DA might gain more support in the upcoming 2026 LGE, other factors cannot be overlooked.

One such factor is the number of townships in Johannesburg. Will the black majority put its weight behind Zille? Will it give the ANC another chance, or will it hold its vote?

Another factor is that, given the number of political parties already registered with the IEC, with more parties still to emerge before the election, the possibility of any single political party getting an outright majority looks very unlikely. The DA and the ANC might end up fighting for the position to lead another coalition.

If the latter were to happen, what is the history of the DA in coalition politics? Would such a coalition be sustainable? Previous experiences in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Tshwane led to a negative response.

Given this context, the people of Johannesburg must brace themselves for the turbulent times. The ANC has failed them. The DA has previously struggled to sustain coalitions. Other political parties are not strong enough to displace the ANC or the DA.

Casting our eyes to the 2029 general election, it will be interesting to monitor the results of the 2026 LGE. Importantly, it will be intriguing to see who will emerge victorious when the ANC holds its elective conference in 2027. Voters’ hopes could either be revived or further dashed.

Therefore, the weakening of the ANC and the sustained service delivery challenges in Johannesburg augur well for the DA. However, it is too early to celebrate. The issues enumerated above can make or break the DA.

* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at Nelson Mandela University.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.