The Fragility of Coalition Politics: Gayton McKenzie's Ultimatum Underscores Trust Deficit

Clyde N. S. Ramalaine

Complex alliances, strategic power plays, and volatile partnerships define the seventh administration of South African governance. Coalitions have become the currency of politics; in Johannesburg, as elsewhere, no single party can govern alone. Yet these partnerships are fragile, requiring numerical strength, trust, respect, and fairness.

One such partnership is between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA). Despite the PA’s marginal electoral support, McKenzie wields disproportionate influence within the grand coalition. His recurring threats raise critical questions: why should McKenzie not be ignored?

The latest storm over PA Deputy President Kenny Kunene’s reinstatement as Member of the Mayoral Committee (MMC) for Roads and Transport in Johannesburg reveals the brittleness of these arrangements. McKenzie has threatened to withdraw his party from all ANC coalitions and resign from his ministerial post if Kunene is not reinstated within seven days.

On the surface, this appears to be a narrow fight over a municipal portfolio; beneath it lies a struggle over power, information, dignity, and betrayal, raising the question of whether South Africa’s coalition politics is destined to collapse under arrogance and mistrust. History shows McKenzie’s defiance is not new.

Past Precedent: A Pattern of Defiance

After the Open Chats podcast launched racist attacks on Coloured identity, McKenzie threatened legal action. At the same time, past tweets in which he made remarks deemed racist, particularly against Black Africans, resurfaced. The SAHRC concluded that his statements prima facie violated the Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act, 2000, and issued him an allegation letter. McKenzie has not responded.

Public calls mounted for Ramaphosa to act decisively and remove him from cabinet, yet the president chose silence. Even when McKenzie warned he would not “go down alone” if dismissed, no comment was made.

This quiet restraint allowed the controversy to dissipate, setting a precedent: McKenzie could test boundaries without immediate sanction. Barely two months later, he threatened to resign, along with withdrawing all PA members deployed under the GNU, citing persistent “disrespect.” To understand why this resonated, one must examine McKenzie’s self-fashioned role in the coalition.

McKenzie: The Self-Appointed Brand Ambassador of the GNU

With just 2.09% of the 2024 national vote, the PA commands a small constituency. Yet McKenzie has made himself central to the GNU’s identity. He styled himself as the coalition’s unofficial brand ambassador and fiercest defender, a role no other non-ANC leader has embraced so fully.

His vocal championing of the GNU contrasts with the ANC’s cautious, often muted public posture. For Ramaphosa, this has been useful: McKenzie’s blunt, shoot-from-the-hip style allows the GNU to respond swiftly and forcefully to opposition challenges, particularly from the EFF’s Julius Malema. In effect, McKenzie functions as a proxy attack-dog the ANC cannot risk producing from within its ranks, giving Ramaphosa indirect cover, managing criticism, and projecting resilience.

Kunene’s Suspension, Exoneration, and Ultimatum

On 22 July, Kenny Kunene was suspended after reports linked him to the home of KT Molefe, a suspect in high-profile murders. The optics were damaging, and McKenzie moved swiftly to suspend Kunene from his PA office, councillor role, and MMC post pending investigation.

Last week, the PA-commissioned probe led by Cliff Decker and Associates cleared Kunene of wrongdoing. For the PA, this was vindication and grounds for automatic reinstatement. However, in the same week, McKenzie’s threat was made. To McKenzie, this was not bureaucratic delay but calculated disrespect, perhaps evidence of an ANC strategy to appease the EFF.

On Facebook Live, after Kunene was cleared, McKenzie celebrated: “The DP is innocent… I am so happy, my brother, my friend, my co-leader, thank you.” Celebration quickly turned to confrontation: unless Kunene was reinstated within seven days, the PA would withdraw from all ANC coalitions, and he himself would vacate his ministerial post. “We will not sit at a table when disrespect is on the menu,” he declared. For McKenzie, this fight is about principle, dignity, and the recognition of the PA as a partner, not a disposable prop. Kunene has since been sworn in as a Councillor, which should pave the way for MMC reinstatement if Ramaphosa’s intervention holds.

Gauteng ANC Dalliances with the EFF Intensified McKenzie’s Anger

The ANC appears increasingly fractured. Ramaphosa’s public scolding of councillors, while acknowledging the DA’s governance successes, underscores this fragility.

A deeper fissure exists where some in the ANC favour engaging the EFF as a partner, even at the expense of the DA. These dalliances, particularly led by Gauteng ANC politicians, reflect a growing preference for Malema’s EFF over McKenzie’s PA, unsettling the coalition landscape further. McKenzie’s fury intensified when the Gauteng ANC-PEC, led by Lesufi, informed the PA that Malema does not want the PA to have the Roads and Transport portfolio and that the ANC intends to replace Kunene with Malema as the MMC.

To McKenzie, this was betrayal. The PA had risked its credibility to help stabilise governance in Johannesburg, JB Marks, and Ekhurhuleni, only for the ANC to consider rewarding a rival party with a visible position. Between McKenzie and Malema, there is no love lost.

According to McKenzie, the ANC also unilaterally removed the PA in Beaufort West and the PA mayor in Laingsburg. This inspired the ultimatum. For PA supporters, particularly in Coloured communities, the narrative struck a nerve: their party was sidelined while the ANC courted the EFF. McKenzie framed the saga as a betrayal of the PA’s base and voters.

McKenzie’s Leverage Over Ramaphosa

In a coalition system already fraught with mistrust, this shadow of leverage protects him. McKenzie’s potency lies partly in the insinuated possession of damaging information. Without explicit threats, he has hinted that dismissal or marginalisation could trigger destabilising revelations.

Cabinet appointments fall under presidential prerogative. McKenzie knows this and uses it to his advantage. His independence, coupled with the PA’s symbolic role in the GNU and his leverage over Ramaphosa, creates mutual dependence: neither can afford the other’s exit. His ultimatum targets Ramaphosa more than Gauteng leadership. By demanding Kunene’s reinstatement, McKenzie signals that the coalition agreement cannot be tampered with from below.

Ramaphosa quietly intervened, instructing ANC Gauteng and Mayor Morero to retreat, illustrating how McKenzie converts symbolic weight and disruptive capacity into real political leverage. The episode reveals a pattern in Ramaphosa’s leadership: silence in confrontation, reliance on time to cool tempers, and minimal intervention until politically compelled. While this restraint prevents escalation, it signals vulnerability, encouraging further brinkmanship.

A Test of Respect and Betrayal

The McKenzie ultimatum underscores a larger truth: coalition politics in South Africa is less about numbers than about respect, leverage, and fragile trust. By elevating Kunene’s reinstatement into a national ultimatum, McKenzie reframed a municipal dispute as a test of whether the ANC values its partners or merely tolerates them.

His defiance illustrates both the power and peril of coalition governance: power, because a 2% party can dictate national debate; peril, because such influence rests on the constant threat of rupture. Ramaphosa’s cornered hesitation and eventual intervention reveal a president navigating coalitions under conditional authority. The episode raises unsettling questions: Is South Africa entering an era where governance is negotiated through ultimatums rather than shared vision?

Ultimately, McKenzie’s ultimatum is not about a transport portfolio. It is about the respect he believes the Ramaphosa-led ANC owes him, the fragility of trust, and the perilous reliance on political brinkmanship to hold governance together.

For the ANC, only one option remains: restore Kunene to the MMC or risk losing the PA—a party that can become a wrecking ball should McKenzie be pushed to reveal sensitive information. The ultimatum has already exposed the GNU’s fractures and delivered a sobering reminder that betrayal, rather than ideology, may ultimately determine coalition politics in South Africa.

* Clyde N.S. Ramalaine is a theologian, political analyst, lifelong social and economic justice activist, published author, poet, and freelance writer.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.