DRC Conflict: Lasting peace hinges on M23 retreat from captured territory

Kim Heller

We will not retreat. "Not even one metre", M23 rebel group, Benjamin Mbonimpa, declared sharply just a day after a declaration of principles was signed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government and M23 rebels in Doha on July 19, 2025. The Doha Declaration is the culmination of months of diplomatic negotiations between Qatar, the United States, the DRC government, and the M23 regarding the conflict. It aims to end the prolonged conflict in eastern DRC.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has welcomed the deal and reiterated the UN's support for peace, civilian protection, and stability.

The African Union (AU) has described the deal as a "significant development". In a press statement, AU chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf spoke glowingly of the declaration as a "major milestone in the ongoing efforts to achieve lasting peace, security, and stability in eastern DRC and the wider Great Lakes region."

The new peace deal is based on a two-way commitment to an immediate and permanent truce. It outlines a master plan for the restoration of key state services in rebel-occupied areas, a prisoner exchange, and a timetable for peace talks, which are set to commence on August 8.

The most significant flaw in the declaration is the lack of clarity on demands or expectations for a M23 withdrawal. The Doha Declaration calls for state control to be reestablished across all national territories in the DRC, including those occupied by M23.

However, the statement is open to multiple interpretations. The M23 rebels' refusal to retreat could lead to a dangerous stalemate. Without a clear resolution, the Doha peace declaration could be added to the large pile of failed truces, further exacerbating the flux, displacement, and humanitarian crisis in the DRC.

The situation is highly charged. The instability in the eastern DRC is hindering economic recovery, the repair of war-torn and devastated infrastructure, and the rehabilitation of damaged schools. The deadlock in the DRC also poses tremendous peril to the Great Lakes region.

The African Union and regional bodies must lead in prioritising diplomacy over division and ensuring that the peace pact is enforced effectively and on schedule. A devoted initiative to scrutinise and stop any breaches of the peace agreement could be a real game-changer in enforcing accountability.

There have been months of diplomacy by Qatar, lavish fanfare by the Trump administration, and promises from both the DRC and M23 to heed the latest peace process. Nevertheless, the new peace process may deliver little more than a brief respite in the DRC conflict. There have been reports of new attacks in key friction areas.

The UN is pushing hard for legitimate and effective measures to verify compliance with the ceasefire. The absence of such an instrument is troubling because it could imperil the entire peace process. There is no place for lapses at this sensitive moment.

A declaration without a highly actionable and well-monitored plan is not enough to silence the guns in the DRC. Even when penned on the prose of peace. A declaration is no white flag unless it translates into an actionable peace plan.

A declaration out of tune with the realities on the ground is no redemption song. Should the peace process not halt the cycle of displacement or result in the reopening of schools, the resumption of critical services, and the repair of vital essential infrastructure, it will bring little relief and justice to the weary and desperate Congolese citizens.

Fundamental issues of ethnic discrimination and exclusion require remedy, not silence. The call for land rights cannot be shut out. A desperate need for structural economic repair and recovery, as well as a nationwide social healing program, is paramount if a future generation of Congolese is to stand a chance of peace and prosperity.

We need to be realistic. M23 is unlikely to withdraw. Should the DRC government refuse to surrender territory to the M23, meaningful political and geographical inclusion will need to be explored. If this is not done, a new age of peace, cooperation, and integration is improbable.

The demilitarisation and integration of rebel fighters into the Congolese army is an immense challenge. It will require a restoration of trust between the Congolese armed forces and rebel groups, particularly the M23. This is a tremendous task which will require diligent surveillance by the AU and regional bodies.

For the US, the peace deal in the DRC is little more than an economic jackpot. DRC's cobalt, coltan, tantalum, and lithium will bolster the US's energy and technical power globally. DRC also provides a prized geo-strategic win for the Trump administration.

For Qatar, the DRC peace deal is a hard-earned diplomatic triumph. However, for the people of the eastern DRC, peace is more precious than mineral wealth or diplomatic gains. It is the incalculable godsend of life without terror, displacement, and violence.

For now, while the Doha Declaration is being celebrated as a landmark moment, possibilities for enduring peace remain exceptionally delicate. This watershed moment may pass too quickly, and waves of new conflict can easily drown out enthusiasm, especially in critical strategic areas across the DRC.

At best, we can expect a pause of hostilities. DRC needs a miracle. In the human fragility of rebuilding trust and overcoming historical grievances, the goodwill of a peace deal can crumble in an instant.

The President of the DRC, Felix Tshisekedi, has welcomed the declaration, describing it as a beginning, not an end. By August 18, 2025, a peace plan is expected to be in place. There are hard days ahead.

* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.