Zimbabwe President Emmerson Mnangagwa takes the SADC chair. While the president has said he intends to rest after his second term comes to an end in 2028, his party is seeking amendments to the Constitution, the writer says. – Picture: Information Ministry Zimbabwe / X
By Kim Heller
Just twelve months after Zimbabwe’s general elections in August 2023, there is talk of President Emmerson Mnangagwa seeking a third term. With the presidential elections in 2028, talk of Mnangagwa seeking a third term may seem premature and alarmist.
It would, however, be reckless to dismiss this possibility out of hand. African leaders have not dressed themselves in glory when it comes to sticking to constitutional stipulations restricting incumbents to two terms.
Mnangagwa has denied that he has ambitions to extend his rule beyond this current term. However, multiple calls from within Zanu-PF ranks and hints of possible constitutional changes to facilitate such a bid, sends out an entirely different message.
This double speak creates an impression that Zanu-PF’s focus is more vested on extending the longevity of its political reign than on the day-to-day governance of a country wrestling with enormous socio-economic challenges.
In July, Mnangagwa said that his retirement days are near. Mnangagwa said he intends to rest after his second term as Zimbabwe’s President comes to an end in 2028.
But the storyline is different for the Zanu-PF Harare Province who are seeking amendments to the Constitution to enable Mnangagwa to continue to lead Zimbabwe beyond 2028. There are already stirrings of a “Mnangagwa for 2030” campaign. Many Zanu-PF leaders and structures, including its Youth League and regional minister Ezra Chadzamira, have also expressed similar sentiments.
It is not in character for Mnangagwa to shy away from power. In all likelihood, by locating and centring the calls for a third term within the ranks of the party, rather than from the incumbent, is a clever and calculated strategy. It is public relations at its very best for it builds and spins a storyline of Mnangagwa as a humble leader who did not personally want to extend his term but will, in the end, do so on the back of demands from his party.
In a thought piece in Africa Report in February 2024, Farai Shawn Matiashe reflects on Zanu-PF’s two-thirds majority in Parliament following the 2023 general election and the resignation of Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) leader Nelson Chamisa.
He writes, “President Emmerson Mnangagwa has tightened his grip on power in Zimbabwe with new seats in parliament, raising fears in the opposition that the ruling party will push through laws allowing him a third term”.
The Constitution of Zimbabwe restricts a President’s term to two. And Mnangagwa is currently serving his second term. A two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and the Senate would be required to effect a constitutional change.
For now, the Zanu-PF does not have the required majority in Senate. A full-blown attempt to alter the Constitution in terms of its provisions on Presidential terms, will cause an uproar and it looks as if Zanu-PF may be looking at a different route to keep Mnangagwa in play until 2030.
In June, the Zimbabwe Mail reported that there was word of an “ambitious plan” by Zanu-PF plan to keep President Emmerson Mnangagwa in power until 2030. The most likely scenario would see amendments to the constitution and electoral laws to separate parliamentary and presidential elections. This would see parliamentary elections taking place in 2028, with presidential elections held two years later in 2030.
Such a plan would put pay to the ambitions of those with Presidential ambitions. Top of this list is Vice President Constantino Chiwenga and Christopher Mutsvangwa, who is the party’s spokesperson.
The rationale behind the “Mnangagwa for 2030” campaign is that an extension of President Mnangagwa’s term of office would allow him to achieve his Vision 2030 goals. Zanu-PF’s youth league national secretary for legal affairs Phinious Makombe has said, “As youth, we are saying, we want President Mnangagwa to continue leading us until we realise his 2030 vision.”
Vision 2030 focusses on large-scale infrastructural development projects, and country prosperity. Supporters also argue that a third term for Mnangagwa would bring much needed stability, as the country navigates economic challenges.
But this argument lacks credence when viewed against the backdrop of current day Zimbabwe which is a society in distress. A Mnangagwa third term may not be the required tonic. His time in office has not materially improved the lives of ordinary citizens. He has not heralded in a new Dawn for Zimbabwe, as he promised.
An extended stay as Zimbabwe’s first citizen is unlikely to bring a real return on investment for the people of Zimbabwe. Rather an extended term will serve as a deep well of prosperity for Mnangagwa and his political elite and exclusive business set.
In many ways, the story of suffering in Zimbabwe has been either hidden or sanitised. The Institute of Security Studies recently remarked that “the Zanu-PF architecture of violence persists, especially in rural areas without significant social media coverage … violence, weaponisation of the law against activists and civil society organisations (CSOs) and a pervasive environment of fear have induced self-censorship among citizens and CSOs. The ruling party has succeeded in brow-beating dissenting voices of ordinary citizens into silence”.
The voice of ordinary citizens is missing in this emerging story. The 2023 general election in Zimbabwe was marked by allegations of voter intimidation, vote rigging, and illegitimacy. This dark cloud still hangs over the Zanu-PF. One would think that the party would be consumed with meeting the needs of its citizens rather than seeking a power grab.
The possibility of a constitutional coup is real. Weak opposition in Zimbabwe may make this more possible. But it may be Internal Zanu-PF lesions that prevent it.
The Zimbabwe Mail reports that there are “deeply entangled” political and military factions in the party and that the political landscape in Zimbabwe is both volatile and uncertain. The reporter writes, “The coming years will reveal whether Mnangagwa’s latest strategy will succeed or if internal resistance and constitutional safeguards will thwart his plans, setting the stage for a potential leadership transition in 2028”.
Zanu-PF politburo member Tshinga Dube said this week that Mnangagwa’s claims on not wanting to cling on to power had been heard but added that it is difficult to predict what the next four years will bring. The future is uncertain. The best laid plans of men can fail in a moment. No man should be above the law. Mnangagwa and his supporters should head Dube’s prophetic words, “While men propose, God disposes”.
* Kim Heller is a political analyst and the author of “No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa”.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African
