uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) leader and former ANC president Jacob Zuma at a media briefing in the IEC’s National Results Operations Centre, Midrand on June 1, 2024. As the 2026 Local Government Elections approaches, the balance of forces seems to favour the MKP in many respects, says the writer.
Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu
WITH the 2024 general election now a thing of the past, the focus has switched to the much-anticipated Local Government Election (LGE) in 2026.
Unlike in the past when it was a foregone conclusion that the ANC would win the election with a convincing majority, things have changed significantly. In 2019, the ANC obtained 57.50% in the general election. It continued to perform badly in the 2021 LGE.
However, the official launch of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) by former President Jacob Zuma on December 16, 2024, set South African politics on a new pedestal. Importantly, it posed a threat to the ANC.
Unfortunately, although the signs were evident for everyone to see that the ANC was already bleeding from self-inflicted wounds, denialism and sins of incumbency saw some ANC leaders refuse to admit two things: that the ANC was on a downward spiral and that the MKP was going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Instead of doing self-introspection and regrouping, some leaders of the ANC dismissed the MKP as a “Zulu political party” which was not going to have any negative impact on the ANC. This was one of the biggest mistakes that the ANC leadership made.
Moreover, as analysts warned the ANC and made concrete proposals on what the party needed to do to save itself, some ANC leaders labelled such analysts “Zuma supporters.”
This was a clear demonstration of lack of vision and failure to read the face of politics well. It did not come as a surprise that for the first time since 1994, the ANC only obtained just 40.18% of the national votes.
While it would be erroneous to advance the view that the MKP was the only causal factor in the ANC’s dismal performance, it is equally true that this was one of the main reasons why the ANC declined so significantly. Those who undermined Zuma did so at their own peril. By extension, they did so at the expense of the ANC.
As the date of the next LGE approaches, the balance of forces seems to favour the MKP in many respects.
Firstly, the multiparty coalition (generally referred to by some as the Government of National Unity or GNU) is unstable. Some members of this coalition contradict President Ramaphosa in public.
This was the case with DA’s John Steenhuisen who disagreed with Ramaphosa in public after the latter pronounced that Russia was South Africa’s friend.
Minister of Home Affairs, Dr Leon Scheriber, announced that Ukrainians would not need a visa to come to South Africa. Vincent Magwenya who is the President’s spokesperson went to the media to refute this claim.
Minister of Basic Education, Siviwe Gwarube dug in her heels on the BELA Act and decided to embrace her party’s (DA) position instead of listening to her President. She even boycotted the event where the President signed the Bill into law. There are other examples too.
Secondly, the ANC’s announcement that it had embarked on the renewal project seems to be good on paper but deficient when it comes to action. It is in this context that former President Thabo Mbeki called for the audit of party members so that the renewal project could be real.
Another issue which works against the renewal project is the ANC’s failure to implement the recommendations of the Zondo Commission regarding acting against those implicated in wrongdoing. To the public eye, this makes a mockery of the renewal project.
Linked to the above is the dent wittingly or unwittingly caused to the ANC by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) through its recent controversial decisions.
The NPA announced that no one was going to be prosecuted on the Phala Phala matter. The fact that money was found in the farm and not in the bank, that it was in foreign currency, that some people stole it, that the matter was not reported to the police, that the suspects (culprits) were apprehended, etc. did not seem to bother the NPA.
As if this was not enough, the NPA also ruled on a matter concerning Zizi Kodwa, stating that it was withdrawing all charges against him – arguing that there were “new developments” which were not spelt out.
While it would be unfair to lay the blame on the ANC for the NPA’s decision, the reality is that such cases contradict the ANC’s resolve to fight corruption. Legally, the ANC did not do anything wrong. However, voters hold a different view on such matters.
Thirdly, the MKP is welcoming big names from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). While this does not affect the ANC directly, it influences voters in many ways. They see the MKP as the party on the upward trajectory while viewing the ANC as having lost the gains it has made over the years.
Fourthly, ongoing socio-economic challenges in the country are blamed on the ANC. Indeed, South Africa is currently governed by a multiparty coalition. But it is equally true that this coalition is led by Ramaphosa who is from the ANC. When services such as water, roads, electricity, etc. do not reach communities, they blame the ANC and its coalition government.
Fifthly, the events outlined above have pitted Zuma against Ramaphosa. Some voters hail Zuma as the chess master while accusing Ramaphosa of being indecisive and determined to save the multiparty coalition at the expense of the ANC.
Therefore, the balance of forces seems to favour the MKP. The LGE is more important because it is the closest sphere of government to the people. This is where basic services are rendered.
As the MKP forges ahead to sort out its structural issues at different levels and welcomes new members in preparation for the LGE, the ANC is still struggling to keep the Tripartite Alliance intact and to explain why the latter should embrace the ANC-led multiparty coalition. The clock is ticking!
* Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu is the Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racialism and Democracy at the Nelson Mandela University.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.
