SWAPO supporters celebrate the party’s landslide victory following Namibia’s first democratic election in November 1989. While SWAPO has maintained substantial support among older voters and rural-based voters, particularly in northern Namibia, it is less popular among the large body of youth, says the writer. Picture: AFP
Kim Heller
AS Namibia’s election on November 27 approaches, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) is flexing its political muscle in what is set to be its most taxing electoral battle.
If it continues to shed electoral support, the party may find itself desperately searching for new political bedfellows and configurations to stay in office. To win, SWAPO will need to focus on young voters, who account for close to 60% of registered voters.
In Namibia’s last national election held in 2019, SWAPO lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament for the first time since it came into power in 1990. In the 2019 election, SWAPO won just 63 seats. Its closest rival, the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) secured 16 seats, while The Landless People’s Movement (LPM) obtained four.
Presidential support tumbled from a high of 87% in 2015 to just 56% in the 2019 election. SWAPO’s withering popularity over recent years has also seen it lose hold of key economic centres, including Windhoek, to rival political parties.
The slump in voter support for Africa’s liberation parties is a growing trend. The enchantment of emancipation politics has faded in the starkness of contemporary struggles for daily survival. Most politically free nations on the Continent have yet to show healthy signs of true sovereignty and many have become the shameful bastions of grave governance shortfalls.
SWAPO, like many former liberation movements, has strayed from its original noble goals, in the heady wonder of ruling party power, and has become weighted down by the heavy load of daily governance.
Although there has been significant public infrastructure investment and improved economic growth over recent years, unemployment and high living costs coalesce to drive dissatisfaction among the Namibian citizenry. Democracy is losing some currency in Namibia. A 2021 Afrobarometer survey found that only half (50%) of Namibians were fairly or very satisfied with how democracy was working. This fell from 66% in 2017, and from a high of 72% in 2014.
SWAPO is now hard at work on the campaign trail to avoid a vote of no confidence in the governing party. While SWAPO has maintained substantial support among older voters and rural-based voters, particularly in northern Namibia, it is less popular among the large body of youth. With youth unemployment standing at 46%, it is not surprising that disenchanted young Namibians have grown increasingly hostile to the governing party. To secure the support of young voters, SWAPO has made a concerted effort to up the number of youthful candidates in its parliamentary list and is addressing the issue of youth unemployment head-on.
At a recent election rally in the Oshikoto Region, SWAPO’s Presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, admitted that unemployment was a serious problem and had accordingly been prioritised in the manifesto. The party has committed to creating over 250,000 jobs in the next five years. “There will be a budget of N$85.7 billion. And I want to tell you, under my leadership, this is not a dream; this is a reality," she promised the gathering.
The Citizen newspaper recently reported on an address given by SWAPO’s Deputy Minister, Piet van der Walt, on youth unemployment. The Deputy Minister spoke of how SWAPO aimed to create a more inclusive labour market which would accommodate a diverse skill set, and include employment opportunities across key sectors, including infrastructure development and digital economy. He emphasised that SWAPO was focussed on sustainable economic growth which would allow young Namibians to develop skills and experience and thrive in the workplace. This sweet talk is electioneering at its best. SWAPO has been in power for 34 years and has been unable to achieve or advance these grand promises.
The 71-year-old Presidential candidate, Nandi-Ndaitwah is a highly experienced politician, having served as SWAPO’s vice-president and the country's current deputy prime minister. Fielding a female Presidential candidate can be positively viewed as a tangible symbol of SWAPO’s commitment to gender equity in both party and parliament.
On 28 March 2024, the New Era reported that Namibia had finally reached 50/50 gender equality in the National Assembly. This achievement is on the back of efforts by political parties to ensure gender parity across their leadership structures. This move was welcomed by the country coordinator of Genderlinks, Veronika Haimbili, who told the New Era that “the 50/50 male-female ratio in Namibia’s parliament is a significant step forward in breaking the glass ceiling of inequality. She said, “We always hoped for this change, but seeing it now is truly exciting. The numbers prove it.”
There is much work to be done. Currently, women's representation in the National Council stands at just 14.29% and the speaker of Parliament, Peter Katjavivi has stated emphatically that gender representation and parity must be part and parcel of “our culture and values, and not be a once-off development”.
Despite its impressive and admirable parade of gender parity in Parliament, Namibia is no haven for women. Speaking at the 7th High-Level Gender Advisory Committee meeting in Windhoek last week, Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila admitted that gender-based violence remained a significant challenge for Namibia and urged leaders to intensify efforts to combat this scourge. She also spoke of how female-headed households were disproportionately impacted by poverty and reiterated that “Poverty eradication and gender equality go hand-in-hand.”
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company has predicted that both SWAPO and its presidential candidate will face a tough contest in Namibia’s November 2024 elections. Nonetheless BMI foresees SWAPO retaining its majority in the National Assembly, and Nandi-Ndaitwah, winning the presidential race.
BMI points out that the veteran leader, Nandi-Ndaitwah, is unlikely to be viewed as an opportunity for change by young voters. However, BMI contends that the “opposition’s failure to coalesce around a single candidate will reduce the various contenders’ appeal to voters, benefitting SWAPO.”
Dr Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO member competed in the 2019 election as an independent presidential candidate and won 29.4% of the vote. He founded the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) in 2020. IPC could prove to be a formidable contender in November’s election. Its electoral mettle has already been tested and its electoral fortitude in the 2020 local and regional elections saw it win over the prized Walvis Bay and Swakopmund municipalities.
In a 2021 Afrobarometer survey, 71% of Namibians interviewed said that they supported multiparty competition. This has certainly been visible ahead of the November election and could well shape the future of Namibian’s political and governance landscape.
SWAPO may well find itself in the same scenario South Africa did in its May election. The ANC’s voter shedding in the election saw the party having to form a government of national unity (GNU) to stay afloat in an ocean of political discontent.
Political party sinkage is the inevitable fate for liberation parties whose promises have come to nought. Dr Panduleni Itula, the leader of IPC has urged political leaders on the campaign trail not to make easy promises that they are unable to deliver on. The fate of the Namibian election is literally in the hands of young voters. They have the power to influence the future and hold leaders to account. Political parties who continue to promise much and deliver less should be voted out of power. It can be done.
* KIM HELLER Political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.
** The views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of The African