Sudanese people fleeing the al-Jazira state stand next to their belongings near the eastern city of Gedaref on November 2, 2024. The new AU Commission Chairperson will need to be an astute and mature leader who can manoeuvre with finesse through a multi-dimensional and often messy geo-political matrix of global, continental, and regional interests, says the writer. Picture: AFP
By Kim Heller
A NEW Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) will be elected on 25 February 2025. Campaigning is underway for four political heavyweights eager to take over from outgoing Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, who steps down after serving two terms.
The four contenders, Anil Gayan from Mauritius, Richard Randriamandrato from Madagascar, Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Kenya’s Raila Odinga are all tried and tested political leaders.
For an eminent politician, the prospect of presiding over the AU could well be the pinnacle of their political career. But it could also prove to be a poisoned chalice. In Dickensian terms, it is “the worst of times” for post-independent Africa. The toxic mix of terrorism, war, and conflict conjoined with endemic economic distress, poor governance, coups, and crippling debt across much of the Continent are some of the challenges that will face the incoming AU Chairperson.
During his speech at the 37th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the AU earlier this year, Mahamat spoke of how terrorism is destroying many African States. With governments forced to spend exorbitantly on military defence, key social sectors of society are increasingly underfunded.
The incumbent AU President also expressed deep concern about the swell of unconstitutional changes in Governments and a spate of coups which threaten the “political-legal order” of the AU and contribute to the deepening crisis in Africa.
For the incoming AU President, the project of helping to lift Africa out of a long“ winter of discontent” and towards a new “spring of hope” will be a real litmus test of leadership, vision and stamina.
Musing over his candidacy, Raila Odinga, a former Prime Minister of Kenya and the current leader of the opposition in Parliament has said, “My heart is ready, my hands are steady and with your support, I shall get the opportunity to be of service to Africa, the cradle of mankind.”
Odinga’s campaign, which pivots on African unity and prosperity, places considerable emphasis on economic transformation, heightened intra-Africa trade, infrastructure development and financial independence. For now, Odinga looks like the most likely successor to Moussa Faki Mahamat.
An endorsement from the East African Community (EAC) for Odinga is a significant vote of confidence. Together with support from key AU member states including South Africa, Rwanda, and Angola, he is the man to beat.
The only female contender in the race, Somalia’s Fawzia Yusuf Adam, has withdrawn and voiced her support for Odinga.
His strongest competition is likely to come from Djibouti’s candidate, Mahmoud Ali Youssef. With a cadence of confidence, the longstanding Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahmoud Ali Youssef, has asserted himself as the right man to unify the Continent and silence the guns. Youssef’s endorsement by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), could prove to be a very important stamp of approval in the race for the AU Chairpersonship. Well-versed in diplomacy and international relations, Mahmoud Ali Youssef has orientated his campaign around boosting the AU’s capacity, structure, and funding. He is also advocating for strong trade agreements and relations with the European Union (EU) and China.
That campaign promises from the candidates tend to centre around the same old issues of unity, economic cooperation and organisational capacity is a poor mark and measure of the AU’s failure to tackle and resolve the Continent’s critical priorities.
In a recent interview on SABC, former President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki spoke of the AU as a flagging institution. He stressed the need to revisit, reinvent, and reinvigorate its programme through applying authentic African perspectives and solutions. Mbeki was very upbeat about promises from the candidates to enable free movement in the AU, saying, the“freer the movement among the Africans, the better for everybody.”
It is a time of reflection for the AUC and its potential candidates for Chairperson. Tough questions need to be asked about whether the AU is fit for purpose, structurally and ideologically, and in terms of leadership acumen, general resourcing, funding sources and limitations. The paradigm must shift from warfare to state-building. The Institute of Security Studies has queried whether the AU model is optimally suited to managing and preventing crises. The ISS observed that “Despite a sophisticated peace and security architecture, the AU’s response to conflicts is often reactive and requires ongoing, structured engagement.” The Institute points out that “Except for Somalia, the AU hasn’t been the first responder to any of Africa’s violent conflicts this year.”
Earlier this month, Nicholas Mwangi, a member of the Ukombozi Library in Kenya, wrote in The People’s Dispatch. “As the AU Commission Chairperson race continues, we are left wondering if the next leader will bring about a substantive shift toward Africa’s true strategic interests, challenge neo-colonial and imperialist interests, and transcend regional rivalries, or simply continue to perpetuate the AU’s symbolic role in global politics. February’s election should mark a shift and not another chapter of continued missed opportunities for Africa’s future.”
The new Chairperson will need to be an astute and mature leader who can manoeuvre with finesse through a multi-dimensional and often messy geo-political matrix of global, continental, and regional interests. He will need to be a magnet for change, in a Continent that is crying out for peace and prosperity. Most of all, he will need to make the AU a people’s chamber, not a tower for the elite. Nicholas Mwangi is correct.
It is time for a new chapter. It should be a time of wisdom, after an age of foolishness and foulness. It should be a time of belief, after so many seasons of incredulity and darkness.
* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.
